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AutoTech Symposium 2018 Opening Keynote: Nikolas Badminton, Futurist

AutoTech Symposium 2018 Opening Keynote: Nikolas Badminton, Futurist


♪♪♪ So now we’re going to kick things off with our keynote opening address And it comes to us from Nikolas Badminton He’s a world respected researcher, futurist, author, and teacher with decades of experience Almost three decades of experience under his belt And he’s going to take a look at the closer look at the major disrupters that will change and revolutionize the transportation industry Please welcome Nik to the stage Thank you very much Petrina, I’m just gonna shift this out of the way. Excuse me. Okay, so it’s fascinating, um, to think about the realms of what we can talk about in terms of AutoTech There are some omissions in what I am going to talk about today I just realized when I was chatting to Petrina I’m not going to talk about 3D printing for example that’s doing amazing things in AutoTech Um, and there is a number of other areas I’m not necessarily going to get into But today I am going to focus in on disruption and how AutoTech is fundamentally changing how we look at the entire automotive business as a whole My name is Nik Badminton. I am a futurist. What does that mean? It means that I look at uh um, the history of where we came from in terms of technology. Where we are today. I extrapolate out things that I call signals of change and I look out ten, twenty, years into the future and try to understand where we are headed. So that’s what this presentation is about. It’s where we are headed with AutoTech. Where the disruptions will be and how the world will change. Are we ready? (pause with audience laughter) One person’s ready. Are we ready? It’s always like “Yup”. Okay. So disruption. It’s a word that’s heavily used. Clayton Christenson, uh ah, talked about disruption within technology. But really disruption is taking the course that we fill, that we’ve, that we’ve been lead down, and just veering off of it, left and right. We don’t quite know what direction we are going to take until the people that choose to disrupt that, that natural course that we, we’ve been told we should take, um, off into, into many directions. And I think that when we look at different areas of technology, um, we’re at a very exciting time where research and development, There’s lots of people here today that are doing amazing things like asking big questions about the world. And really the big fundamental question about “Is this the way that it should be?” Because fundamentally, we’ve been told over the years what the world should be. How we should operate. Through advertising. Through brand marketing and the such like. But we’re about a re-imagination today. And the re-imagination, um, it always starts with the industrial revolutions of the world. Industrial revolutions happen across three dimensions – Communications, Energy, and Transportation. If you go back to the first industrial revolution, um, you know, you got new ways of communicating there. Um, coal, transportation through steam. Steam locomotion and whatever, through to the modern day. And now we got this amazing exponential growth in technology and change And really it kind of kicked in around the early 1900s with electrification. Electricity. So electricity changed absolutely every single part of our lives around the world And then in the 1960s, 1968 to be precise, a guy called Douglas Englebart, um, sat there in Standford and he presented something called the Mother of All Demos And you can go to YouTube and you can take a look at that. And he presented like, something called a mouse. You know, a short hand keyboard. A proper keyboard. He presented like video conferencing. Hyperlinking. And that was 50 years ago. And now we got all of that in our pockets, right? At millions of times more efficient, efficiency, with our mobile phones. And then in the 1990s with the internet and mobile, and everything’s changed to the 2010s I’m being kind of generous there The last three to four years, with artificial intelligence, we’re seeing a huge change. And artificial intelligence can be actually seen Like Andrew Ng says, um, “Artificial Intelligence is the new electricity.” It’s that new point where we actually have a huge exponential growth and it will be absolutely everywhere. And I’ll cover that in some depth in this presentation. But this is where we are with the 4th Industrial Revolution, as some people call it. Digitized Communications Renewable energy Automated transportation and logistics These are all internets. These are all connections. These are all ubiquitous sensors. Big datas of foundation and processing that enable us in the world to make changes more quickly and to look at the world in different ways. Um, to be able to, to enact change, not only from a research and development perspective but form a daily life as well. So that’s sort of the beginning where we are, the foundation. And this 4th Industrial Revolution is being, being escalated by a number of different technologies and I like to look at signals, and I, I look for what I call ‘Signals of Change’. It’s the things that you look at down the street and it’s like “I’ve never seen that before and that’s really interesting. Oh, there’s suddenly ten people doing that.” It’s for example, when you go down to San Francisco and you see 25 different versions of self-driving vehicles. You know that change is coming. It’s not everywhere but it’s likely that it’s going be coming, um, thick and fast. And I like to, to call on this quote by Paul Saffo, because it does take a long time for change to come. Because we don’t just release a piece of technology and then suddenly we use it, and then it seeps into culture immediately. He said it takes about 30 years for a technology to seep into culture. If you look at something like virtual reality, augmented reality, that’s being used right now, certainly in the automotive industry, it’s taken about 30 years for that to gain pace. It took about 30 years for mobile to really gain a lot of the pace that we have today as well, and it’s the same with a lot of different, um, parts of technology. But that 30 year change, it’s a cultural change. So a lot of the things I am going to talk about today, are there, it’s just people not being used to them being there. So it’s us being able to take it into our lives and to, to roll forward with that. And what’s really interesting about the automotive industry, to me, the traditional automotive industry, isn’t, doesn’t really want to change very quickly. And that’s controversial to some people in the room here. But, but really when you upset the order of things, you have to change so many different elements, especially where supply chains and very complicated machinery, like internal combustion engines are are sort of considered. You can’t just flip and change, year by year. But now we are at that point where flipping and changing is happening on a 6 month by 4 month by 1 month basis. Right? So, where are we in the industry? Well, we know where we came from. From the bicycles, from the first car from the, from the Benz brothers. Through to looking at hybrid technology, and then into, you know, Tesla’s electric vehicles, as well. Obviously, we’re a little further than that now and that’s what I am going to cover in the rest of the presentation. Now we’ve actually got a new center for the automotive industry of North America. It’s not Detroit. It’s Silicon Valley, and everyone’s there. It’s really interesting to me, the amount of traditional, uh, companies like BMW, Hyundai, Volkswagen, um, Mercedes Benz, Toyota, whoever, have all gone down to the valley It’s because that’s where research and development dollars are. It’s where the talent is. Because now the automotive industry and the cars that we drive and the trucks that we drive, software is the platform. Hardware is the enabler. And, and if you just look inside a modern vehicle, you got so many different sensors, so many different providers, so many different OEMs. It’s different. It’s not just hardware. It’s about software. And these are the new car companies. Hands up, whose got a Dyson vacuum cleaner? Yeah? Like, they’re expensive, no? (laughter) right? I’ve, I’ve got a Dyson vacuum cleaner. Would you buy a Dyson electric vehicle? (pause) Right? Maybe? I mean, it’s interesting, they just dumped $2 billion into research into electric vehicles. Do you think James Dyson can make it happen? Yeah, of course. He’s, he’s revolutionized one industry already. But like Lyft and Tesla, you know Amazon, Softbank. You know Softbank’s like a juggernaut, um, driving ahead. Ali Baba after by Microsoft. And, and financing of new autotech in automotive is, is increasing over the years as well. All the way from 2012, you can see the, the huge growth that’s coming in terms of that investment. And it’s coming across these – Collaboration, partnerships, between different companies. I think, I think the collaborations and partnerships are, are happening at a greater pace, now today, than they ever have done in the automotive industry. Investment, merges and acquisitions, there’s lots of companies being acquired by the larger car companies, like Ford and GM and the such like. And virtual integration within those companies that they’re developing whole new areas around, you know, virtual reality, 3D printing, but, but autonomous vehicles as well. It’s a really interesting time to be alive in the autotech, in the automotive industry So, one of the very first signals of change I ever talk about in relation to transportation and any industry, is around energy, because I think we are at a tipping point I think that we are at a position where we’ve done incredible harm to the environment and we’ve never been so polluted as we are today This is, we’re at a point in time where we have to change our habits away from burning fossil fuels So this is where we get into thinking about solar I don’t know if you’ve ever seen this before, this is green panda out of China It’s about a 300 hector, um, solar panel farm Isn’t that amazing, to be able to see that? Um, well, the World Economic Foundation, uh, it’s a world economic forum, um, actually says that, um, we’re installing about 70,000 solar cells an hour, right now. Most of those are in China as well. The, the cost of solar has dropped exponentially and the amount that’s being, um, installed, it’s been installed exponentially as well. It’s almost near zero cost to install solar. But what if it isn’t sunny? Well people in Finland have developed well like these black, black solar cells. They use nano technology to be able to be almost equivalent efficiency as normal solar cells. So even on cloudy days, it can generate electricity. That’s a came changer. Another game changer is these guys out of the University of Michigan and MIT. They came up with a completely transparent solar cells. Imagine every building that you see around you, that’s covered in glass, covered in these solar cells? These are as efficient. They’re about half as efficient as a normal solar cell, but that’s not a problem, because you have twice, three times as many of them. In fact if you covered one world trade centre in New York City in these, uh, transparent solar cells, it would power 350,000 homes in the New York City area. Right. So, these things are game changers. The signals of change. And then, do you remember when, uh, when Australia were having problems with, with power outages and Elon Musk went on to like Twitter, in an earlier more sane version of himself than he is today? (laughter) Um, I love Elon Musk. You never bet against Elon Musk, right? Um, he, and and they said “We’re going to put in the world’s largest, um, lithium ion battery farm for you, and we’re going to help you solve the problem of electricity in Southern Australia.” It cost about $90 million Australian dollars to implement this. Um, which he did in under a 100 days. Right? Pretty phenomenal. Um, and the first, um revenue numbers in the first 6 months of operations are around $13.1 million. So hey, that’s going to pay back really quickly, right? What’s the future? Is the future burning fossil fuels or is it harnessing an unlimited supply of energy from the sun? I think we know the answer to that, right? And this is the absolute future that we’re heading towards. Now this isn’t happening in the next 5 or even 10 years. But we got the idea that we could build smart grids that cross boundaries and borders. That we can share abundant renewable energy, whether it’s from wind, just like the wind farm down in Australia. From solar. Um, from from wave energy. And pass it across borders to wherever we need it in the world. This kind of global energy interconnection is going to absolutely and fundamentally change how we look at energy. Now, we’re probably looking beyond 2030 or even 2040. But down in Asia, the Asian super grid is being planned across 5 different countries right now and we’ll see that within 5 years. You know, China, Russia, Japan, um South Korea, a, a couple of other countries as well. Are going to be sharing electricity in a way that’s an an early predictor of what this is going to become. So what do you when you got unlimited energy like that? You, you use that energy. And that brings be onto the next part of the presentation – Electric Vehicles Who owns an electric vehicle in the room? Okay, wait a min, one, two, thre—what electric vehicle do you own? You got a Volt? PHEV, right? You PHEV? A Volt or a Bolt? V. So we got 3 PHEVs, and I got a Chevrolet Bolt. Which is a full electric, because I’m brave. Not really so brave, and I’m going to explain. I took this picture in Vancouver 2 weeks ago in Pacific Centre. They got this big flashy place. They only got about 8 places where you can charge vehicles, right. But but in BC alone, about 280% growth in the last quarter of electric vehicles hitting the road. Mostly because of Tesla 3’s. It’s actually surprising that no one in the room has got a Tesla 3, because in Vancouver there, uh, there are a lot that have hit the road But if you look at this, you’ve got like, uh, you’ve got the, you’ve got the Audi. You’ve got the BMW i3. And the you’ve got the Kia on the end. And that’s my car, Ziggy, which is my Chevrolet Bolt. You can drive 400km on a single charge. Everyone talks about range anxiety. I’ve never even think about charging my vehicle because it’s got so much range. Never. It’s just a nice to have this in free electricity. I’ve driven over 3000km since I’ve owned that car and spent zero on fuel. Right, I’ve spent nothing. I’ve spent nothing. Total cost of ownership on an electric vehicles is hitting rock bottom. But over the years, we’re going to see this total cost of ownership driven change towards electric vehicles coming. And it’s going to be a little slow in larger markets like North America because we don’t like change, right. And if you still go to, it’s interesting to me, when I go to the car dealership, there’s no electric vehicles anywhere. When I went to buy my electric vehicle, there was one for test drive amongst three different dealerships in the whole of Greater Vancouver Area. I had to go and drive my friend Peter’s car. To just go and see what it was like. And when I did, I saw it was an absolute no brainer. So dealerships and the automotive manufactures are not helping the change but there are some countries that, that are really helping. Um, but, you know the researchers are doing some really interesting things right now. You know, we’ve been trying to aim to get to the 1000km mark in terms of one charge and range. Now this company is called ITAP. It’s out of California. Um, what they did was they took this old BMW and for $19,000 they took recycled parts and they built, um, a battery load in this and, and the drive train and whatever. And over a two day period drove it 1204km They drove it twice to Tesla to show Elon Musk but he didn’t come and see. (laughter) But I actually think that the 1000km range is the thing that is the tipping point for the industry. I mean, hands up whose next car will be an electric vehicle if you knew that you could plug it in and overnight you could have 1000kms range? Right. It, it’s almost everyone in the room, right? Because it’s just, it’s equally as good as an internal combustion engine. I would argue that my Chevrolet Bolt is better than, than an internal combustion engine in terms of, um, burning fuel and, and cost and the such like, anyway. But you go to Norway today. Norway sells, 45% of all their new cars sold in Norway are electric. Now Norway became incredibly rich from oil and gas. Right? They’re now divesting from that entire, um, investment portfolio nationally, which is super interesting. They’re also, um, they they forgone the taxes on electric vehicles that actually give you extra benefits like cheaper ferries, preferential parking, a number of different benefits from going full electric. It’s cheaper to buy a model S in, in Norway, than it is to buy a BMW M3. And if you were given that choice, what would you buy? Right? I certainly buy a model S in that situation. I actually think that by 2025 in Norway there will be 100% electric vehicles will be sold They’re actually saying that by 2040, electric vehicles will be accelerating to about 54% of all new vehicles sales. Do we believe that? I actually think that’s a hugely conservative, uh, estimate. I think we are going to move a lot more quickly than that. But we’re only going to move a lot more quickly if a lot of the big car companies get out of the way and start upping their production, right. And it’s coming to other forms of transportation as well. We saw the Tesla semi and now we’ve got a Volvo semi coming as well. Over in Norway, we’ve got the fully electric, uh, the car ferry. I was just on the Isle of Skye in Scotland a couple of months ago, and there was a diesel hybrid electric ferry that ran from Sconser to Raasay, across this little strait. It was amazing, that technology coming that far. Um, and the bottom left is, uh, a massive, uh uh, freighter, um, freightliner from China that goes up the Yangtze river. It doesn’t have a huge amount of range, about a 40km range. Ironically, well, it’s it’s fully electric but ironically, it transports coal up the Yangtze river. (laughter) I mean seriously? But, I’m not going to talk about China too much. There’s a couple of points in this. In China, they are rolling out about 9500 electric buses every 6 weeks. If you, I could have done an entire presentation on China and what it’s doing in electric vehicles and how it’s going to be miles ahead of who we are. Like it is in solar, like it is in other forms of renewables. To adjust its sort of carbon footprint, which is pretty terrible. It’s going to be there. There’s nearly 500 smart cities in China that are under development today, as well. So these are fully connected, platform driven, software driven, algorithmic cities that are going to be connected to algorithmic buses and algorithmic electric vehicles with self-driving capabilities. It’s pretty amazing, right? So, you know, looking at the energy moving towards electric, looking at electric vehicles, but electric vehicles aren’t going to be the thing that really hits us too quickly. And that’s probably a good thing for people that work in aftermarket parts. Because this is where a huge amount of disruption comes here. Current estimates for lifetime, uh, of today’s electric vehicles are around about 500,000 miles That was taken from a recent, um, case study on a Tesla Model S that’s being driven around California Right. So that’s a huge change from where we are with ours vehicles today And about 80% of aftermarket OEMs say that they’re not, they’re not prepared, right. So if you do work in the aftermarket, here’s comes some really big disruption for all of us If you actually look at, um, the share of, of how you make money in the aftermarket, you got wear-and-tear, crash relevant parts, services, diagnostics products, and a little bit of, of other pieces of that as well But that’s all going to be changed Now what was really interesting that there was a study done last year by UBS What they did was took a, uh, they took a Volkswagen, um, Golf, and they took a Chevrolet Bolt The car that I drive And they ripped them apart and they tried to work out the cost of building those vehicles and when they hit parity We’ve hit parity this year I mean Chevy loses a little bit of money when they sell a car to me but, you know they’re, they’re gaining market share there But UBS, when they rep-, you can download that report. It’s about 95 pages and it’s very in-depth and thorough about what, what what that means. When they actually looked under the hood of the two different vehicles was actually sort of a huge change In, in Chevrolet Bolt there was 35 parts And really out of those 35 parts there’s only, there’s only 4 or 5 that are really moving and they never break I never use breaks because I do regenerative, um, power generations in my car that does all the breaking using the drive train And I sometimes have to put washer fluid in my car But verses 167 parts in the Volkswagen Golf And like yeah, how many times do you need to go take your car in for maintenance on a yearly basis? It’s not a good thing The after-sales revenue pool could drop by about 60% or about $400 per vehicle per year So the aftermarket gets absolutely devastated by electric vehicles Electric vehicles we saw about 54% by 2040, so it’s not going to come thick and fast, but by 2030 that industry is going to be devastated in a lot of different areas You’re going to see a lot of people having mergers and acquisitions. Um, you’re going to see a lot of the, of the companies that produce the vehicles, taking back control of that aftermarket as well. That’s a couple of predictions for you. This is an upgrade in electric vehicle It’s a purchase of extra range or whatever features you actually want to take from the Tesla Model S, right. So, you wanna increase the speed? You want to increase the range? You just like hit purchase and put in your credit card number and you’re done. Never need to see a dealer You never need to, uh, you know deal with the car company directly So this is what happens to that, to that graph we had before You know, um, EV disrupt wear and tear parts. There’s just not that many of them. Autonomous vehicles disrupt crash relevant parts because if we think about it autonomous vehicles shouldn’t crash that often. Software and cloud computing should disrupt the services element of that That’s where the aftermarket is – cloud and services. That takes us onto think about platform And I think platform is, is as much about business model as it is about technology And one of the business models that I think is, is amazing is around co-operative car schemes Does anyone use co-op car schemes here? I was using a car to go out a lot in Vancouver before I had my car Um, there’s a number of others What’s really interesting is, is if you actually switch to these services it actually removes about 14 vehicles from the road per person. Right, so 15 to 1 ratio. And no you’ve got, you’ve got instances where companies like Lyft and Uber are experimenting with this. And U-, and Lyft actually came out with a scheme earlier this year. Where for about $300 per month you could have unlimited use of a Lyft service So suddenly you no longer have to own a vehicle You spent $300 a month for an application on your phone and have on demand vehicles And imagine what happens when autonomous vehicles come as well It’s huge disruption, right? And it’s not that convenient today Culturally we like to have a car that sits for 95% of its life in a parking lot or outside of our house Why would we do that? Culturally are kids are not going to think that way. Then Mercedes-benz Bank is playing with this as well. For a monthly fee you got access to a number of different vehicles. 12 vehicles for a year for a single monthly payment Who wouldn’t, who wouldn’t, uh, like to actually try a number of different Mercedes-benz on a, on a monthly basis? DiDi out of China is doing some really interesting things here They actually started an e, an e-vehicle sharing service with 12 auto makers So, both Chinese and North American as well And what’s really fascinating about that, it had such a large amount of uptake that it was, it was a car sharing service that let you test drive vehicles so you could think about buying them So this, number of test rides in 90 days was 1.4 million, test drives What automotive manufacturer can, can boast that? DiDi do not make vehicles, they just had the partnerships And the automotive industry really appreciates these kinds of things But they know that the disruptions coming Because they got the platform. They got the subscriptions. Subscription is the future verses ownership And really, by 2040 and that, that year’s been touted in this a lot It’s almost when we hit the singularity, so says Kurzweil and his friends. A trillion dollars in revenue in terms of ride sharing and ride hailing. That’s a lot of bread. Right? That’s a complete change of how we operate today in the world. And that’s a lot of vehicles on the road that are being used more. So, you know, is that good for the environment or not? Because not all of them are going to be electric at that point. Okay. So we’ve seen a lot of disruption in this presentation, But this is when it gets super serious. Um, back in ’93 to ’96, when I was at university, I did a course called “Applied Psychology Computing.” I specialized in artificial intelligence and linguistics, and A.I. was pretty terrible. It just didn’t work that well. In the last 5 years we’ve seen artificial intelligence investment rising. We’ve seen developments, um, being invested in. We’re, we’re seeing lots of collaborations. We’re seeing the largest companies in the world investing billions of dollars in artificial intelligence as the future. And this is where we’ve gone. We’ve gone from 1997 with Kasparov being beat by a computer, for the first time, by IBMs Deep Blue computer. To a, um, a IBM Watson then winning Jeopardy, against the best Jeopardy players. And 2017 was really interesting. AlphaGo learned how to play the game of ‘Go’. The Chinese game of ‘Go.’ From learning all of the games that went before it and then playing the masters. And then it played Lee, Lee Sedol, (inaudible) ‘Go’ Master. And beat it, beat him, 4 games to 1. And during the playing of that game, it played intuitive, very human and creative moves that made him a better player. And then following that, about 6 to 8 months later, they created something called AlphaZero where it didn’t learn any previous games. And it just taught itself over 40 days how to play the game of ‘Go’ on its own. And it’s completely unbeatable. It also learned chess in 4 hours. And became completely unbeatable And it changed how chess strategists and grand masters think about game play. So this is about human and the machine. We get better by using artificial intelligence. This isn’t Terminator walking in and destroying everyone in the room and suddenly being the grand master. These are tools for us to use, right? There the, uh, there the, the conversation that is happening in the media is wrong about A.I. and the destruction of jobs. At no point in time has a piece of technology come in and destroyed hundreds of millions of jobs globally They just created new kinds of jobs And sure you won’t be having kids flipping burgers in Burger King or McDonald’s Because no kid should be doing that. They should be doing something valuable with their lives, right? And by 2030, they think there’s going to be a $15.7 trillion boost to global GDP. Through efficiency, new industries and growth. So, A.I. is a platform. Um, it’s a set of tools. It’s, it’s going to be the foundation of everything that we do. It’s going to be in every single device. Every single car. Every single university seat. You know. It’s going to be an interesting world. But it’s not going to be our nemeses, and it’s not going to be like watching us, working out how to destroy us. That’s a misnomer. And this is the amount of interest that there’s been in autonomous vehicles. And this is where A.I. becomes real for the automotive industry. And this is uh, these are people who are searching for new kinds of technologies. And au, autonomous vehicles are front and center of, of the thinking of consumers and are we worried? No, we watching this area very very carefully. And the Department of Transportation in the States actually think by 2023 we’re going to be seeing more vehicles hitting the road, as on demand self-driving vehicles and vehicles that you are going to buy yourselves and drives yourselves. This is a very sober organization. I actually think this is around about right, where that tipping points going to be. I don’t think it’s going to come that quickly. Isn’t it interesting how as a 16 or 17 year old, you can pass your driving test, Sit, sit in a 2, 2 tonne vehicle, drive around and don’t kill yourself and other people? That often, alright? But we need to teach cars how to drive 2 to 3 million miles to work, on how to drive like a 17 year old, alright. So there’s still a lot of work to do. And we’re not quite there in terms of working out how autonomous vehicles will work in the future. But there are some companies like Ford, that got a really big vision. I’m just going to play this video for you. (music playing during video) And this self-driving capability is being trialed in Miami. You’ve also got self-driving capabilities being, uh, being driven out of, um, out of, out of Arizona right now. And uh, it’s really interesting, I just watched a video the other day of a guy who called a Domino’s Pizza. And it turned up in a self-driving vehicle. You know, it’s becoming mainstream. Just in small ways in the beginning. And then earlier this year, this company Embark, there was a self-driving truck. That drove from San Diego to Florida. Um, with very little, um, engineer interaction. I think about 2 or 3 times, during that time. Really interesting. And then you got new companies like, uh, Ike, which is name after Eisenhower. Who was the guy that revolutionized the North American road system. And this is about human and the machine, like I talked about in terms of ‘Go’ and chess and whatever. Because it doesn’t see a future necessarily where these trucks are going to navigate themselves, self-driving through cities. But it’s certainly going to see it going from port to port on highways. So this is how it works. There are ports and the, the, um, drivers drive these, these Ike trucks into. The trucks are then sent along their way. Maybe platooning along the way, like 2 or 3 trucks in a row. And then they go to other ports and there’s drivers that take them the last 10, 15, 20 km, alright. It’s a, it’s a hugely interesting world. I think trucking is going to be something that is disrupted before a lot of cities and the general use of vehicles. But it’s also going to be the most contentious, ‘cause these are very very large vehicles and they can cause a lot of trouble, um, driving through cities. But what is a car? If a car drives itself, can we really say it’s a car? You know, it’s a big philosophical question. This is uh, this is uh, a GM vehicle. I actually think this is a design fail, because it looks like a car. But they’ve started to think about what, what if you take a steering wheel and the pedals out of the vehicle There’s about 14 standards that it doesn’t meet. To be able to pass safety inspection. Safety regulations in North America. Because it doesn’t conform to the normal rules of a vehicle So, you know, there’s disruption on a regulation level as well. This is a design fail because, why is there two seats sitting forward with a little area in the middle for your cups? That’s not how it, um, autonomous vehicles are going to be. This is a company that is really interesting called Zoox. Um, this is one of their
test rigs. And they actually see a future where the car doesn’t have steering wheels (inaudible). It’s got it here though for, for learning. But, but they think of a platform for the vehicle that’s more akin to an office. Or, or a bedroom or whatever. Very much like Volvo came out with this concept car. Imagine if you could actually have a, a car that drove you overnight from a San Frasican, San Francisco to San Diego? Or from New York to Boston? And you could just sleep in it? Or if, if you do a longer commute, say you’re driving from Waterloo to Toronto for meetings. But you could have 3 or 4 of your team members in there and you can actually have your team meetings along the way with no one worrying about having to drive?s Or being distracted from driving because of the conversation, right? This is the absolute future. I actually think that some people may choose to live in cars But in the future living in cars is not going to be a negative thing. It’s going to be someone that chooses to live on demand, You know BMWs or, or whatever. The luxury and actually pay maybe $100 a night, to actually stay in something that is luxuries and drives them from one place to another once they, once they sleep. And they can do work all over the country. It’s a complete disruptor. It’s a complete game changer. A car is not a car. I really love this idea from Mercedes-Benz where the urbanetic, it’s just, it’s just a platform So, so on the right hand side there, you just got the wheels and you got the powertrain of the vehicle. And then you got personal vehicles or you got transportation vehicles that can be plugged into that. Plug and play vehicles, I think that this is a big idea. That’s going to actually change how we operate. And how companies, especially logistics companies, can, can meet small and large demands going forward. I think it’s fascinating. Ford sees a city that’s very different. Fewer cars. What are we going to do with all of the parking space in the world? Right? Vertical farms. Cheap accommodations. Who wants to live in the basement? Level 3, P3, where do you live? But what’s interesting is the future of the city is this. It’s less stressful commuting, Car crime, parking, city centre retail, Healthcare and emergency services, Centrally located offices, Car washes, mechanics, auto dealerships, And fewer restaurants. It’s more distributed living. It’s not to say that all of these things will be absolutely disappear They just won’t be in the cities like they are today, right. If you go to Vancouver today, I think that there’s something like two, um, gas stations In the whole of, near to the downtown core of Vancouver. Where as before they used to be on the corners of the busiest streets because people would be driving everywhere. Things are already changing. But, the, the good news is with this technology we’re going to have more housing, more parks, Less expenditure, improved health and wellbeing, And jobs in the, in infrastructure support for all of these changes. So with technology comes new jobs and a verging economy It just shifts around, alright. And then onto ethics. So self-driving cars, and we’ve, we’ve heard about this. You know, we’ve, we’ve heard, “oh self-driving cars. If all the cars were self-driving,” we save ourselves, um, “nearly 1.3 million deaths a year.” It’s not quite that simple, because humans are not necessarily the smartest people in the world. So there’s always going to be deaths. Right? Before I [talk] the trolley problem, has anyone heard about the trolley problem? The ethical problem of like “but what if, if the autonomous vehicle needs to make a choice to kill that person or these 10 people?” Well, you know what? An electric vehicle, no sorry, an autonomous vehicle is not a trolley. This is a, this is an ethics debate around trollies and, and railway systems. Do you know what? Cars just stop. No one dies. Right, so let’s move on. Think ethically beyond the trolley problem. Um, and think about how quickly do we, do we deploy these platforms? This is a quote from Anthony Levandowski, um, in 2016. Uh, he’s a very famous Google engineer. Self-driving vehicles. He’s now created a religion where A.I. is the god. Uh, he’s a, he’s very controversial and provocative. “We should deploy the first 100 cars as soon as possible.” “I don’t understand why we are not doing that?” “Part of our team seems to be afraid to ship.” Yes, because the team is afraid to kill people. Right. So, there’s two sides of the coin with how quickly do you put the technology out there? We’ve already seen some problems. Right? We’ve already seen a death with Uber. We’ve already seen a death with Tesla. Yeah. And sometimes this is human error. In fact, both cases it’s human error. Because you know what? Self-driving vehicles don’t have a self. We have to build in the ethics and, and the rationalization, um, from human engineers. Um, and autopilot isn’t auto, really. We’ve got the, we’ve for to the point where the Toyota North American CEO saying “people are still going to die in vehicles on the road.” Right. Unfortunately, it’s very complicated with millions of cars driving around. Not all of them being self-driving and humans being in charge of certain elements. Today, it’s driving the vehicles and in the future it’s programming the vehicles. And training the vehicles on test data. So, there’s the Telsa problem, right? And the crash that happened, um, I think this is down in California. Um, and they’re not particularly sensitive people, the people at Tesla. If you look at the press release, it’s pretty disgusting. “We empathize with Mr. Huang’s family, who are understandably facing loss and grief, but the false impression that Autopilot is unsafe will cause harm to others on the road.” NHTSA found that even the early version of Tesla Autopilot resulted in fewer cra.. So now, now they’re saying look how good we are And, and basically like “he’s dead because he was stupid.” This was their, this was their official press release after this guy died with Autopilot. Why did they call it Autopilot? They should call it ‘Assisted Driving.’ Right? Make it very clear. I actually, when you go in the car, they make it very very clear so they guy made, made a huge problem. Uh, a huge error with his driving style and unfortunately he passed away. And then there’s laws, rules and regulations. In Germany, um, one of the ministers there, uh that works in the transportation ministry actually said “Oh let’s look at new laws for driverless cars.” So people are already starting to think about, you know, enacting these laws. Yeah. So property damage over personal injury. Uh, never distin, distinguishing between humans based on categories such as age or race. You know, all of these bias things and whatever. So the world is getting hugely interesting. And the automotive industry having the think about ethics, and bias, and training, and data, Artificial intelligence, electrification, Um, all of the platforms. Cloud, cloud computing. Availability of service. It’s a completely different world. I actually think that the automotive industry is going to be stronger than ever before. It’s just that it’s going to operate in a way that’s completely different. And then we know about the problems. That once you put things onto a network Uh, you put controllers into vehicles There’s already about 25 to 30 computers in an average new vehicle today. If you, uh, exponentially grow that in, into self-driving vehicles And you have them connected to the Cloud You’re going to have people trying to hack that. “What’s the biggest risk of hacking?” “In a data centre it is loss of data.” “With a car it is loss of life.” If you actually look at what WikiLeaks did with a, a release with something called Volt7. I think that happened, uh, towards the end of last year. They actually identified that the CIA had programs to try work out how to hijack vehicles to use them to kill people. That’s fun. And then you got the people at Kaspersky. They were the people that to helped hack the, the jeep. And we’ve probably all seen the video of, a, on Wired of the jeep being hacked. We should be worried. And we should actually have an entire culture around cybersecurity And every single part of the automotive, uh, supply chain. Right. And if you got a question in
your mind that’s like
“Am I doing enough?” You’re not. You’re not doing enough to
protect yourselves. And if you got kids that want
to have jobs for
the rest of their lives, Tell them to, um, get into
cybersecurity. That’s why I chose data when
I was a kid. And then looking at experience, So when these vehicles change
and, and the ecosystem changes, What, what’s that experience
like in the car? Well actually, uh, Uber has got
this patent for in vehicle
virtual reality experiences. Suddenly you’re in the Bahamas
but actually you’re on the
401 for 3 hours. But you’re more relaxed after
getting out of the car after
3 hours, Because you’ve had a nap. And you’ve been able to chat to
your friends from across the
world because they’ve been in
virtual reality as well. It’s a different experience,
right? It’s kind of, it’s kind of nice
to think of it in that way. Or you know, this luxury
vehicle, relaxed, site seeing
experience that we could have. I, I talked earlier about the
car that becomes the hotel room,
that becomes the classroom, That becomes the office. Becomes the nightclub. How about interconnected
nightclub, where you don’t have
V.I.P. lounges, You just go to the BMW, the
Mercedes-Benz, the whatever? And they’re driving around one
part of Toronto. Windsor. London. Paris. Tokyo. I’m not going to really talk
about flying cars, so much. But I do want to say that this
is Larry Page’s flying
autonomous car. And they’re coming. Uber’s already started that, uh,
as a route forward. In LA and Dubai by 2020 you’re
going to have flying, flying
taxis in those places. And it’s kind of incredible
to think. It’s like “where’s the
flying cars?” It’s like, well they’re coming. They’re not going to be
numerous. There’s not going to be
thousands of them per city. But this, this is for the
people that really want
to be flash. “How did you get here?” It’s like “I flew in my flying,
on demand car.” People are still dying in the
test of these, by the way. It’s, it’s pretty dangerous. So where are we headed towards
the future? Okay, I’m a futurist. I’ve,
I’ve looked at a lot of things
that happen today. I’m, I’m making a few
predictions about where we’re
going in the future. Some people aren’t going to
believe them. Trust me, I think that they’re,
I’m pretty much on the money. I actually make monetary bets
on a lot of this stuff. Um, and it’s because of this,
Amara’s Law. I don’t know if you’ve heard of
Amara’s Law. But it says that in the short
term, we completely
overestimate, um the effects
of technology. And in the long term, we
completely underestimate the
effects of technology, right. A.I.! Terminator! In the long run, it’s going to
be running every single part
of your life. Right, those kinds of examples. In, in the short run, um,
self-driving cars everywhere. In the future, actually,
self-driving cars everywhere. But a complete disruption of
the automotive industry. How smart cities work. How society works. And how kids don’t even look at
a vehicle and think that it’s a
car that they own. So what do I think’s going to
happen? 2025. a lot of futurists don’t
like to make predictions,
but I do. So self-driving taxis, transit,
and trucks become commonplace
by 2025. Electric vehicle adoption
starts to rise exponentially
with more charging
infrastructure, which is key, and incentives being available.
Government has to step up. Co-operative and on-demand
(autonomous) driving schemes
start to normalize autonomous
driving, in cities. And that’s because we have to
have a cultural change. In 2030, what’s going to
change? EVs will drive 2000kms on a
single charge, as standard. And uh, people won’t really buy
internal combustion engine
vehicles. In fact, I think it will become
so expensive to insure those
vehicles and own those vehicles
in the future. It will actually be prohibitive
to own them. Human-driven vehicles outlawed
on highways. Replaced by on-demand
city-to-city transportation and
on-board cloud-connected
autonomous systems. I think by 2020, 2030, this is
going to be an absolute reality. And I haven’t even put any
guesses about what 2050 is
going to bring us. It’s going to be completely
different. And that’s a long way to look
out, I’ll be honest. That’s, that’s a little
difficult for me. So where are we today? And where are we headed towards
the future? Well, well we are at a place
today where we’ve got a huge
amount of opportunity to make
the changes in the world that
fundamentally redefine what
automotive is. This is the AutoTech Symposium. I’m very excited to be here. Come and chat with me. We’ve got some time for some
questions now I think. My name is Nik Badminton.
I’m a Futurist. Thank you. ♪♪♪

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